This year Louisiana will elect a new governor as incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards is termed out, and Loyola political science professor Sean Cain said the unique primary system in the state makes governmental elections run differently than most in the country.

The deep-red state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, yet has voted for democratic governors including Edwin Edwards in 1991, Kathline Blanco in 2003, and John Bel Edwards in 2015 and 2019.

An Early Republican Endorsement

The Louisiana Republican Party, at the request of Republican mega-donor and 2019 gubernatorial contender Edie Rispone, backed Louisiana Attorney General and Loyola alumnus Jeff Landry for next year’s governor race, according to The Advocate.

Landry officially entered the race before any other major candidate, preventing other Republican challengers from seeking the state GOP’s endorsement.

“Usually, state political parties in an open seat race will withhold their endorsement so as to not alienate a candidate who wins a nomination but doesn’t get the endorsement,” Cain said. “But of course, Louisiana has its unique Jungle Primary system, in which all candidates compete in a nonpartisan primary and the top two advance to a run-off.”

Cain said another big difference between Louisiana and other states with gubernatorial elections in 2023 is that Louisiana has a very late candidate filing date.

“Because we consider the Jungle Primary, which is held on the normal election day in other states, as a primary election, whereas other states will have their primary elections before that,” Cain said. “That late deadline creates kind of a vacuum where candidates are in part basing their decision on whether to run based on who has already decided to.”

Cain also said he thinks the Louisiana GOP is trying to get ahead of the late candidate filing date, by throwing its support behind one candidate.

“I suspect that the state party’s endorsement is a way to communicate to Republicans in the state that the resources for the election are going to be heavily favored for Landry,” Cain said.

Louisiana senators. Bill Cassidy, John Kennedy, and Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser announced their intentions not to run for governor. These announcements eliminated Landry’s biggest potential Republican competitors, especially Cassidy and Nungesser who threatened to challenge the attorney general from the political center, according to Cain.

Eyes on Landry

Landry gained attention earlier last year when he urged officials to withhold funding for hurricane preparation in New Orleans after the city decided not to dedicate police forces to enforce the state’s abortion ban.

“I think it is a combination of Landry’s political positions over his time as a member of Congress and then as Attorney General, that are probably shaping the dynamics of the party’s endorsement and how other candidates are reacting and trying to fill a void,” Cain said.

Cain also said that Landry lost his congressional seat following a post-Katrina redistricting that put him in a contest with a more moderate candidate.

“In his 2012 campaign for reelection to Congress, Landry went head to head with a more mainstream Republican, Charles Bousany, and in the Jungle Primary…no one got over fifty percent. Bousany won the runoff when, though the Democrat was a distant third, the Democrats endorsed Bousany as a less extreme candidate,” Cain said.

Cain added that Landry’s only Republican challengers are State Senator Sharon Hewitt and State Treasurer John Schroder, both of whom, he said, will struggle with name recognition and differentiating themselves from Landry.

This concern over Landry’s politics is also seen at Loyola, with students like marketing freshman James Colando, who said that Landry’s previous threats to withhold hurricane funding concerned him.

“As an out-of-stater from Florida who is not very familiar with Louisiana politics, I feel concerned and a bit scared,” Colando said.

The Democrats’ Circumstances

Cain argues that disorganization and failure to unify around a single candidate in 2011 explained the Democrats’ defeat.
“But then in 2015, the Democrats smartly cleared the field for John Bel Edwards and Republicans were divided. By doing that, it allowed [Edwards] to get into the primary against David Vitter, a scandal-plagued candidate,” Cain said.

Cain argued that this exemplifies how unity behind a single candidate is necessary for Democrats in a way it is not for Republicans.

“Now it is possible that the top two might be two Republicans. There is no guarantee that there will be a Democrat,” Cain said. “I think if there is not a strong enough Democrat to get second place in the Jungle Primary, then it creates the opportunity for a moderate Republican to be that second place candidate who would then have a shot against Landry in the runoff round.
Cain said that he thinks Edwards is not an unpopular figure in the state, even as the state has turned red. Edwards has been a skilled candidate and a relatively skilled governor in winning reelection, according to Cain.

“As long as there aren’t too many Democrats in the race, if a Democrat has Governor Edwards campaigning for him, they at least have a strong shot at winning second place in the first round,” Cain said.

Why a red state can still have a blue governor

Cain said another way that Louisiana differentiates itself from other deep-south states is that, though it has become a very red state, voters in Louisiana are aware and mindful of the fact that the government provides benefits that a poor state like Louisiana has trouble mustering on its own.

“So, given the state’s history with disasters, given the state’s history of budgetary struggles because we are reliant on the energy industry which has its swings…I think if a candidate can be painted as somebody who is so opposed to government that they make it difficult to keep the lights on, then the Democrats have a chance,” Cain said. “But if the Democrats are painted as out of touch on social issues, then it is much easier for the Republicans to win.”