Per usual, the newest conflict between Hamas and Israel has ignited American politics and media into the typical posturing of pro-Israeli hawks, who would seemingly have the Israelis do “more” if they could, and those who strive for a sense of “justice” for the Palestinians, even if the means, as well as some of the ends needed to achieve justice, are actually quite terrible.
The conversations one often hears on the television, radio and Internet often become quite bombastic in short order and the same arguments that have endured since 1948 and 1967 continue to do just that.
Yet what seemingly few are saying, at least not directly, is that this conflict will very likely fail to substantively change the dynamic of the relationship between Hamas and Israel. To wit, it will likely help to reinforce the hardliners and undermine those who seek negotiation and peace.
The official purpose of Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak’s “all-out war” on Hamas is to end the rocket fire coming out of Gaza and into Israeli towns. Though these crude missiles do not even begin to approach the power of the Israelis, any serious observer of the conflict must admit that the Israeli government has the responsibility to defend its citizenry. The safety of Israeli civilians is, however, far from the only concern of the ruling Kadima party. Olmert’s regime has been in shambles since the 2006 Lebanon fiasco with Hezbollah and the subsequent corruption scandal, and it looked as if Likud, Israel’s main centre-right party, was going to make major gains in this February’s Knesset elections. Kadima has sought to use tough language and military action to “out-Likud” Likud and bolster their chances in February; a new victory for Israeli forces of non-negotiation which may pay dividends in the future.
Assuming Hamas can resist the Israelis throughout the Israeli response to the rocket fire, even if they do not inflict a large number of Israeli casualties, they will be awarded with a great amount of political capital. If Hezbollah’s 2006 campaign against Israel serves as any example, the hardliners of Hamas have the world to gain while those who seek negotiation will be left to explain away 800 plus freshly dead Palestinians, on top of Israeli control of Gaza’s borders and embargos on fuel, power and other critical supplies. A Hamas victory, even if it is only a moral one, pressures Arab governments to stand with Hamas as they fight the Middle East’s most popular “good fight,” even if it is waged against the women and children of Israel (which, in turn, allows the Israelis to easily refuse to make concessions to the Palestinians).
It should not be said that the current conflict is being fought over nothing, as both sides have had their security violated. However, this conflict will very likely only yield short term security gains for Israel and will only advance the agenda of Hamas and Israeli hardliners. Though the rockets may stop landing in Israel for now, if there is no serious negotiations predicated on a new commitment to peace sponsored by both sides, it is only a matter of time before the suicide bombers return to Tel Aviv and Israeli bombs fall from Palestinian skies.
Kevin Welsh is a political science junior. He can be reached at [email protected].
