The financial reality of Loyola’s post-Katrina situation is creating a lot of speculation among faculty members and staff.

Loyola is currently involved in a program review to evaluate and possibly suspend or eliminate academic programs. The review has been mandated by the Board of Trustees in response to an anticipated reduction in tuition revenues, but no specific financial guidelines for the review are currently available.

There is also a proposal being written by the Rev. Kevin Wildes, S.J., university president, that will address broader university restructuring.

“I am using all of the work that was done, in the past several years in student affairs and academic affairs, to set out strategic goals for the next five years to help strengthen the university. Right now, it is in very early stage draft form, and I will release it to the campus in early April for public comment. Earlier, in the fall, we did a reduction of expenses in all areas of the university. We will be releasing that to the university community in April for comment as well,” Wildes wrote in an e-mail.

During the Tuesday meeting of the President’s Task Force for Planning, Stephen Scariano, professor of math and computer science, asked Wildes for specific financial data relevant to the university restructuring.

“We need to be making decisions based on data as well as qualitative issues,” Scariano said. “I don’t see any vision that does not involve financial issues.”

Wildes replied that he did not intend to release financial data during the meeting.

“I have been very public on our financial situation. I addressed it in my convocation remarks to the faculty and staff in January and in two follow up emails,” Wildes wrote.

The budget for this fiscal year is estimated to be about $120 million, with a shortfall of approximately $16 million, Rhonda Cartwright, the vice president for finance and administration, said during the meeting.

Financial questions were also raised during the Standing Committee on Academic Planning meeting, also held on Tuesday. The SCAP met to refine the criteria to be used in the program but also discussed the possible financial situation and its relationship to the program review. Specific financial data was also not available at this meeting, though the committee members also discussed other potential sources of university income.

In response to a suggestion that money from the endowment be used to make up the current and projected deficit, Provost Walter Harris indicated that this was not an option.

“The Board [of Trustees] has a very strong position on the endowment,” he said.

Statistical projections of potential enrollment and the corresponding revenues have been created by John Sears, the director of institutional research. The actual projections, which are being used by the provost’s office, are not available to the public at this time. The median estimate involves a structural deficit of approximately $10 million that will continue for four years before the university can expect to return to pre-Katrina levels of enrollment and revenues, Sears said in the SCAP meeting on Tuesday.

The statistical projections cover a range of possibilities. The best-case financial scenario, Sears said, has the university nearly breaking even, though he said there is almost zero probability of this. The other end of the projection’s range has the university carrying an $18 million deficit for at least four years.

One of the indicators of potential future enrollment that is being used is the number of applications that have been received by the Office of Admissions. Currently there are about 1,000 fewer applications on hand than there were last year at this date, Sears said.

The upcoming hurricane season will also affect future enrollment rates. Any hurricanes moving into the Gulf of Mexico this summer, or any evacuations, would be seriously detrimental to enrollment and retention, said Bill Barnett, associate professor of business administration.

The retention rate is a factor in the concern about future tuition revenues. The investigation into the future of retention rate has just begun, but there are indications that they will drop. The number of transcripts requested has increased by a factor of three, he said. The data regarding enrollment and retention, along with the rest of the program review data, should be made available for public comment by April 7.

Lindsey Netherly can be reached at [email protected].