The artillery bombardment by North Korea of the South Korean island Yeonpyeong in the disputed area between them on Nov. 23, is the most destructive attack on South Korea since the end of the Korean war in 1953 — the first incident in which civilians were killed there since the armistice.
Experts believe the assault may be meant to advance the military credibility of North Korea’s next leader, Kim Jong-un, or was an effort to coerce the resumption of international negotiations that might result in financial assistance.
This ongoing, pressing need has been intensified because of grave food scarcity and public disturbances due to the revaluation of the currency.
There is a quirk of fate involved in Pyongyang’s assault on Yeonpyeong. General Douglas MacArthur utilized the same island in 1950 at the start of the Korean War to launch an all-out amphibious invasion at Inchon.
The shelling comes in the wake of a number of other hostile actions on the part of the North. The most serious was the sinking in March of the South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan.
These actions mark a return to Cold War tactics and a pattern of belligerence by Pyongyang. The North Koreans regularly play at brinksmanship.
The North is in the midst of a transition in leadership and the assault intersects with the latest actions by the ailing leader Kim Jong-il to situate Kim Jong-un, his youngest son, as his successor. This would mark the third generation of the Kim family regime. This takes place in an environment in which one of the best ways to shore up a faltering, impoverished society is to rally the people around the threat of an outside adversary.
The gravity of the situation was heightened by the United States’ involvement in naval war games with South Korean forces in the Yellow Sea, an action that both North Korea and China censured as confrontational.
The deployment of the USS George Washington attended by escort ships represented a forceful sign of U.S. military superiority near the Chinese coast. This is a situation that Beijing has attempted to avoid. Pyongyang warned that the U.S. South Korean naval maneuvers were impelling the peninsula toward the “brink of war.”
These actions on the part of North Korea may well be the beginning of an uncompromising turn in the Kim Family Regime policy, driven mainly by an internal power struggle signified by the ascent of the generals, who are solidifying their influence over Kim Jong- un. Because of these internal dynamics, even China, North Korea’s sole strong ally, possesses little clout in altering North Korea’s erratic actions.
China has, though, proposed “emergency consultations” on resolving the crisis, initiating diplomacy between North and South.
China has tried to protect North Korea from a hostile response that Beijing believes might bring about a fierce rejoinder from Pyongyang and undermine the region. But Beijing doesn’t want to coerce Kim Jong-il.
The issue revolves around whether China perceives this recent aggression as a danger to regional stability and consequently a more serious hazard than volatility inside the regime. China fears North Korean instability and collapse, as well as an influx of refugees. It wants to halt the aggressive actions of Pyongyang, but isn’t in a position to issue commands.
There is a probability that Pyongyang will initiate another provocation. North and South Korea are crossing the threshold of a precarious new stage in their byzantine relationship.
Kenneth Keulman is a professor in the religious studies department. He can be reached at [email protected].
On the Record is a weekly column open to any Loyola faculty or staff. Those interested should contact [email protected]
