For the Obama administration, the crumbling of the American economy has dominated all political discourse and capital since Inauguration Day. While this attention is likely deserved in light of the 30 percent fall in the Dow Jones industrial average since Election Day, with 15 percent evaporated since Inauguration Day, American foreign policy goals, as well as America’s enemies, are not waiting patiently for the next stimulus or bailout announcement.
The Afghan War is an excellent example. While the Obama administration has yet to articulate its strategies on Afghanistan, the eventual policy may be surprising. For those concerned about “social justice” in foreign policy, an issue has arisen with the Afghan War. Kyrgyzstan, which has allowed American supplies to be flown into Afghanistan via Manas air base, has informed Obama that it won’t allow American access. This will limit American re-supply efforts and force Obama to find new partners in the Afghan effort.
Unfortunately, the only state which has indicated another option is Uzbekistan. I say “unfortunately” because the Uzbeks are ruled by Islam Karimov, a despot with a history of torture and murder. Karimov will be happy to allow American access to his prison state if Obama will cut a check. The Afghan War, which has been characterized as “Obama’s War” of recent (a product of his campaign’s focus on Afghanistan and his commitment to win the “good” American war), was marked by a decline throughout much of President Bush’s tenure. Obama inherits a conflict in which the enemy’s leadership is untouchable in neighboring Pakistan, corruption and ineffectiveness runs rampant within the current Karzai administration (in-country, President Karzai has been titled “the Mayor of Kabul”) and the question of whether the Afghans will accept a U.S.-styled democracy is still open.
Just as pragmatism may force Obama to reassess his priorities in the case of Uzbekistan, realities on the ground of Afghanistan may force the president to reshape American goals.
Obama will have to incorporate Pashtun leaders, even those with connections to the Taliban, into the governmental solution. If they can guarantee that their territory will not be used to destabilize the Afghan government, these Pashtun may prove to be useful. The price of cooperation will force another Obama hand: the policy on the Afghan-grown poppies. The drug money has ties to the Taliban as well as Pakistani forces, specifically the ISI (Pakistan’s intelligence agency). Realistically, the Americans cannot stop the drug trade and would do better to live with it if the money can be routed away from terrorists (this is a big “if”). Time is important in Afghanistan, and Obama will likely have to strike deals with unsavory characters in the region soon. It will be interesting to see how Obama melds his values of “change” and Afghanistan’s realities.
