As the coming political battles over Social Security and tax reform unfold, Americans will find out whether the Republican victories in November signals a permanent shift in the balance of government power.
President George W. Bush has spoken consistently about Social Security reform as his highest legislative priority. The president has also expressed a desire to reform the federal tax code, and some congressmen have proposed that both issues might be addressed in one sweeping piece of legislation.
However, high-ranking Republicans, like Sens. Arlen Specter and Bill Thomas, have expressed doubt about any plan to overhaul Social Security in favor of privatization. Democrats, while cautious to outright condemn reform ideas, are amassing opposition to the Republican plans.
The White House seems to recognize that the debate hasn’t yielded much public support or excitement, and leaders of both parties are engaged in strategy talks.
For the Democrats, the issue provides an opportunity to rebuild party strength and slow Republican momentum. If the Democrats succeed in defeating GOP reform legislation, the victory could re-energize the demoralized minority party.
For the Republicans, the politics are more complicated.
If the GOP succeeds in passing all of the aggressive reform proposals the president has touched on, then the Republican ascendancy to a popular dominant party will clearly be completed. However, even if they can’t push the Social Security reform bill through, the GOP can benefit from the inevitable political face-off.
By forcing the Democrats into a controversial battle over Social Security, the Republican Party has a chance to build, test and flex its newfound muscle.
By allowing moderate Republicans to influence the debate, they dispel perceptions of conservative extremism, which broadens the party’s base.
By drawing Democratic senators and congressmen into voicing public opposition, the Republicans can identify the minority party’s new power structure and concentrate their efforts on destroying that structure in the 2006 Senate Elections.
And by bringing a domestic issue into the spotlight, public attention is at least temporarily diverted from the innumerable tragedies that dominate the nightly news.
The first year of Bush’s second term will tell us whether or not the Republicans will transform the government landscape and become a perennial majority party, or if the historical swings in power unique to American democracy will continue.
The Democrats certainly have a hand in determining their own fate, but Republican strategists concede that the greatest threat to the GOP’s dominance may be their own hubris.
With a self-proclaimed “mandate” and Congress and the White House firmly in their custody, Republicans must now be willing to accept something no politicians willingly accept: blame.
With a divided country, an unpopular war and a declining dollar, there should be plenty for both parties to share.
Thomas Stevenson can be reached [email protected].
